For buyers stuck on the question · Central Valley
Rent or Buy?
Let’s do the math.
Built for buyers in Manteca, Tracy, Lathrop, Stockton — not Bay Area generic. Plug in your numbers, get your break-even year.
A note from Janice
Most rent-vs-buy calculators are written for Bay Area or national averages. They’ll tell you to keep renting because the math assumes $1.2M starter homes and 9% rates from 2008.
This one is calibrated for buyers in Manteca, Tracy, Lathrop, Stockton, and surrounding cities. Actual rent-growth rates. Prop 13 property tax basis. Realistic loan rates. And the one number that actually matters: your break-even year.
Renting
Your rent today
The big assumption
How long will you stay?
Honest take: if you’ll move in under 3 years, renting almost always wins. Buying needs time to amortize closing + selling costs.
Buying
The home you’d buy
What this calculator assumes
Estimated · locked at Central Valley averages
If your situation is different, text me at 209-305-9401 — I’ll run your real numbers.
Annual rent increase
4%/yr
Estimated · Central Valley rent trend 2023–2025
Renter’s insurance
$20/mo
Estimated · standard $30K personal-property policy
Property tax
1.10%
Estimated · CA Prop 13 baseline (locked at purchase price)
Homeowner’s insurance
$1,400/yr
Estimated · Central Valley SFR avg (Tracy $1,365 / Stockton $1,483)
Maintenance
1%/yr
Estimated · industry standard (1% of home value/yr)
Home appreciation
3%/yr
Estimated · Central Valley 10-yr historical, conservative
Closing costs (when you buy)
2.5%
Estimated · buyer-side title, escrow, lender fees
Selling costs (when you sell)
7%
Estimated · ~5% Realtor commission + ~2% title/transfer/prep
Renting wins over 7 years
—
Break-even not reached
Over 7 years, renting still comes out ahead by $21,260. If you can stretch the timeline or buy at a lower price, the math tilts toward buying.
Rent you’d pay
$229K
Total over 7 years
What owning costs
$390K
Down + mortgage + tax + ins + maint
Your share of the home
$182K
Home value minus what you still owe
Renting comes out ahead
$21K
After selling costs, your bottom line
If you buy: all-in monthly payment is $4,152/mo. Cash needed at close: $37,500 (down payment + closing fees).
How “your share of the home” is calculated: starting loan = home price minus down. Each month a small portion of your payment chips away at the principal at your mortgage rate (standard 30-year amortization). After 7 years, the remainder is what you still owe; the rest is yours. Math also factors in 7% selling cost when you eventually move (Realtor commission + title/transfer), so the “ahead/behind” number is your honest bottom line.
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What’s next
Now you’ve got the math
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2 · See real homes
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Book consultation →5 · Test your readiness
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Take the quiz →6 · Community
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Q&A space for Central Valley buyers — ask questions, get answers from me + other buyers. Launching soon.
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If the math made you curious
Read the First-Time Buyer Guide
The plain-English walkthrough I wish someone had given me at 25 — what pre-approval really means, the HOA/tax/insurance trap, and how to think about timing.
Read the buyer guide →Or just text me.
If you want to skip the funnel and ask me a question directly — that’s what I’m here for.
Already working with another agent? Totally fine to use this tool. If you ever feel they’re not serving you right, my door’s open — 209-305-9401.
Janice Divina Liad
Faith. Family. Forward.